Many might compare the drought experienced in 2021 to the devastating drought that hit the region in 1988. However, meteorologist Daryl Ritchison, director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network, says this wasn’t the case.
“I’m not telling you that it wasn’t dry this past summer,” Ritchison says. “In 2021, 20% of the state had average or above-average precipitation, while in 1988, zero percent of the state had hit that average. 1988 was much warmer to an extreme, and while farms may have fared worse this year than they did in 1988, the data shows that 2021 wasn’t as bad of a drought year.”
Dry but not unusual
In 2021, pockets around the region had sufficient rains. Still, other locations remained dry. However, Ritchison notes a summer storm could give a large portion of the moisture needed.
“If we think about a thunderstorm, we could get 30% to 40% of our moisture from that one storm,” he says. “That’s what many of us missed this last summer to give us that moisture.”
Average rainfall in North Dakota only adds up to 10 to 15 inches a year, with South Dakota averaging up to 23 inches.
While many think that North Dakota receives sufficient precipitation, in a normal year, Ritchison says this isn’t the case. “Let’s look at Bismarck — only 19% of the years since 1875 have had above-average soil moisture.”
Data from other parts of North Dakota, such as Fargo in the Red River Valley, finds only 29% of the region had above-average soil moisture over 30 years. “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” in the way the regions differ slightly from year to year, but still mirror each other in weather patterns and soil moisture conditions, he says.
Tracking moisture levels
Ritchison says that Oct. 1 marks the beginning of the new moisture season.
“The start of the water year is really that reclamation of what you’ve used during the warm season, and most of what falls in October and beyond stays with you until the next year and the next spring,” he says.
He notes that the region is already sitting with abundant soil water conditions for 2022, starting above average in most areas. The big snowstorm experienced at the end of November provided the region with 25% of our precipitation for the winter, he adds.
The North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network has over 130 stations across North Dakota, central Minnesota and eastern Montana, all capturing data that is reported to the National Weather Service. These weather stations differ from ones put on by other entities, due to the proximity to the ground.
“Our stations are only 10 feet off the ground as opposed to 30 feet,” Ritchison says. “This allows us to better track where it matters, along the crops and fields, and where we feel weather.”
Serving as a risk management tool, NDAWN stations can be a proactive tool for producers to predict their next season with future weather patterns.
Weather for 2022?
Here are meteorologist Daryl Ritchison’s 2022 predictions:
- Soil moisture starts out strong.
- Some spring flooding is possible in the Red River Valley.
- Moisture levels will drop to below average in July and August.
For more information on past and present weather data, check out North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network.